REBusinessOnline talks with leading finance companies around the nation.
Luci Cason
Published online 06-13-2005
Recent trends in real estate financing include interest-only loans, borrowers with a penchant for one-stop shopping and investing in multifamily properties. Hot lending environments include D.C., South Florida and Southern California. To get the latest on these trends, REBusinessOnline.com spoke with several national lenders: Jay Donaldson of Arbor Commercial Mortgage in Uniondale, New York; Thomas Sherlock, executive vice president of Buchanan Street Partners in Newport Beach, California; Jeff Patton, managing director of Collateral Mortgage Capital in Birmingham, Alabama; Dan Smith, senior vice president of Stamford, Connecticut-based GE Commercial Finance Real Estate’s North America Debt Group; Leslie Lundin, senior vice president of Inland Mortgage Capital Corporation in Oak Brook, Illinois; Marty Lanigan, president and CEO of Short Hills, New Jersey-based Mezz Cap; Nicholas Buss, senior vice president of PNC Real Estate Finance in Pittsburgh; Byron Steenerson, president of Seattle-based EF&A Funding; and Andrew S. Fawer, managing director with New York-based CIBC World Markets Corp.
1) What are the latest trends in real estate financing?
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Lundin: One-stop shopping. With so much fragmentation in the structured debt and equity markets, borrowers are getting confused. The players offering a one-stop capital stack will win the business.
- Fawer: An ever-increasing need for one-stop shopping. Clients need permanent fixed-rate financing but they also need flexible lenders to achieve maximum value.
- Lanigan: New products in the mezzanine sector seem to be one of the newer trends. I think people are trying to become more innovative in the higher leverage components of the capital stack.
- Steenerson: Continued low interest rates along with lackluster performance in other asset classes have provided a significant catalyst for a growing number of multifamily real estate purchases. Throughout the country, investors are looking for ways to obtain higher yields than those offered by stocks and bonds. With many markets stabilizing after several years of struggling rental markets, multifamily real estate is able to provide fairly high yields to investors despite the low capitalization rates, relative to historical averages.
2) What loan products are particularly popular right now?
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Steenerson: Interest-only loans — which allow borrowers to capture added cash flow for the first 1 or 2 years of the loan term before the loan begins to amortize — are popular. They are quite attractive for purchasers wanting to focus on capital-intensive expenditures to enhance property. Numerous borrowers are requesting interest-only loans to allow them the opportunity to make improvements to a property immediately after purchase without being as concerned about the negative effects those capital-intensive improvements have on their net cash flow.
- Donaldson: CMBS lending is very hot right now. However, agency lending always has a strong demand in the marketplace. Interest-only terms continue to increase with the appetite for longer interest-only periods on more and more transactions.
- Sherlock: Condo conversion and development/construction loans are in extremely high demand. Rapidly rising housing prices, especially in the West, Southeast and Northeast, have resulted in many entry-level homebuyers shifting into the condo market for affordability reasons.
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Patton: It seems that almost every multifamily loan we are considering has some period of interest-only structured into the transaction. We are even seeing full-term interest-only on fully leveraged assets. Full-term interest-only loans have historically been reserved for assets with more conservative leverage, which illustrates how competitive the market is for multifamily debt.
- Fawer: Permanent financing involving either acquisition financing due to the prolific acquisition activity in the market or refinancing due to low rates.
- Lundin: The market is going crazy for mezzanine. It’s the fast way to high leverage and it’s far less expensive than equity.
3) Overall, what regions are hot lending environments right now? Which ones are struggling?
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Donaldson: Both coasts continue to outperform the overall U.S. market. Various areas in the South, with low costs of living and few barriers to entry, continue to grapple with absorbing new development.
- Sherlock: The entire western United States is in demand by capital providers. Market strength in Southern California has spread and capital is actively seeking product in Las Vegas, Phoenix, Seattle and Portland. Secondary markets in the West, like Tucson and Albuquerque, are experiencing a strong capital inflow.
- Patton: There are three primary markets that are particularly hot right now — South Florida, D.C. and Southern California. While capitalization rates have fallen dramatically in virtually every major metropolitan area, investments in these areas have been in even more demand.
- Buss: The leading regions currently are D.C., Southern California, South Florida and New York/New Jersey/Connecticut. Other areas to keep an eye on include Phoenix, Las Vegas, Dallas/Fort Worth, Orlando and Tampa. Areas that continue to struggle include the Midwest Rustbelt and former high-flying tech centers.
- Fawer: Florida, California and the Mid-Atlantic are seeing continued growth and activity across the product spectrum. The Midwest is a bit flat but has many spots offering value.
- Smith: Loan activity has been especially heated in Southern California and along the East Coast. We’ve also been doing more business in Texas than in past years.
4) What do you predict will happen with interest rates? How will this affect acquisition financing in real estate?
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Sherlock: Fed pressure on short-term rates will slow during the coming months, but the stress of rising commodity prices, a growing budget deficit, and the U.S. dollar will cause long-term rates to finally move up. Even though the yield curve will adjust from its current flat state, long-term rates will still be attractive relative to investor return expectations so acquisition financing volume should remain high.
- Smith:I concur with the general consensus that moderate rate increases are likely over the next 6 to 12 months. If this is the case, the marginally higher rates should have little or no impact on real estate acquisition financing, which currently has a low level of volatility.
- Lundin: There is so much foreign money floating around, an increase in interest rates could have a much lesser effect than an increase in the strength of the dollar. The 1031 buyers will still accept reduced yields to save on taxes. The loser will be the buyer whose yield is reliant upon interest rates.
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Buss: The conundrum currently facing the industry is rising short-term rates coupled with stubbornly flat long-term rates. It is unlikely that this will continue through the last half of 2005 and into 2006. At some point — likely sooner rather than later — long-term rates will have to move higher. The implication for acquisition financing is that it will make debt more expensive. However, with the industry remaining capital-heavy, competition will ensure that loan spreads will remain under pressure. As a result, all-in rates for borrowers will likely rise at a pace less than the increase in interest rates. Bottom line, unless rates spike for some unexpected reason, buyers and investors will find plenty of capital available to finance acquisitions, and available at still attractive rates.
- Patton: If rates stay below 6 percent for the next 12 to 24 months, the industry is going to see a tremendous amount of business. This will be driven by continued acquisition financing, as capitalization rates should stay low, and a flood of refinancing. Many investors have commented that a significant percentage of their portfolios begin to roll over in the next 24 months, and low interest rates would obviously benefit investors and property owners.
Lanigan: As rates eventually increase, you are likely to see some greater credit pressures come to bear on new transactions. Debt service coverage constraints will become more meaningful, cap rates will eventually follow suit and rise, and balloon risk will become a more elevated concern. The combination of these factors will likely increase sensitivity to amortization concessions, and start to limit interest-only periods on loans. It also will likely increase the demand for mezzanine financing, as all these factors pressure the amount of proceeds that can be sized into a senior loan.
5) What are the biggest factors affecting the real estate financing industry right now? How so?
- Sherlock: The acceptance of real estate as its own asset class by institutional investors has dramatically influenced the supply of capital in the real estate industry. The maturation of the CMBS market and the real estate industry as a whole seems to have resulted in greater efficiencies in the marketplace and will hopefully have a positive impact on the volatility of future market cycles.
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Smith: Without question, capital markets’ insatiable global quest for high-performing investments has had a tremendously positive impact on our industry’s investors and lenders. Global lenders continue to perceive real estate as a relatively stable asset class with a long history of consistent returns, few delinquencies and little volatility. As a result, we should expect that each day more and more investors will enter commercial real estate.
- Fawer: Prices have become very aggressive over the past year. While acquisition activity may stabilize, we will see a continuation of refinancings as loans mature at a high rate in the immediate future.
Financing in the Multifamily Market
- “Job growth and population growth are key factors for a healthy multifamily marketplace. Those factors, coupled with supply decreases due to condo conversions and very low homeownership affordability levels, make the West and South Florida particularly strong markets. Of course, new buyers in those markets face real risks due to the significant cap rate compression that has occurred there.”
— Thomas Sherlock, Buchanan Street Partners
- “Investors and lenders alike are constantly looking for those markets where the supply of multifamily units has some constraints. We have all seen what happens in areas like Atlanta, where multifamily development keeps getting further and further from the central business district. In those markets, where there is no limiting factor with regard to development, rent growth is limited, concessions remain high and it is difficult to drive up physical occupancy. The constraints in markets like Southern California, Washington, D.C., and New York City help to insulate those markets.”
— Jeff Patton, Collateral Mortgage Capital
- “In many markets, apartment owners are finally able to increase rents without worrying about having to give it all back in concessions. Other markets, however, are not faring as well. Currently some of the hottest markets include Phoenix and Philadelphia. The strength in Phoenix’s market is due to its strong demographic trend along with an apartment market reaching equilibrium. With employment in positive territory and population growth remaining positive, this region has seen an increase in the renting population. With positive market dynamics and economic demographics, this market has been red hot. Philadelphia is another market that continues to show strength. Unlike Phoenix, in which new construction has slowed, construction activity in Philadelphia is surging. With employment showing continuous improvement throughout 2004 and into 2005, and continued population gains, this market is primed for solid demand of rental housing. Though construction activity has soared, vacancy rates remain below figures seen by many metros in several years. A market that hasn’t been performing as well as market participants would like is Atlanta. This market is a clear example of oversupply. With a current vacancy rate near 10 percent, it will be some time before Atlanta absorbs the current vacant stock in the market and finally enjoys strong rent growth.”
— Byron Steenerson, EF&A Funding
- “Condominium conversions and new construction are also hot. Condo markets throughout the country continue to confound the experts. In California, condos are the only affordable housing available and hence are a strong performer. Retail cap rates are as low as anyone can remember throughout the country. The values are strongest on the coasts and especially in supply-constrained California markets.”
— Leslie Lundin, Inland Mortgage Capital Corporation
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Financing in the Office Market
- “Office vacancy rates have fallen by nearly 1 percentage point over the past year and demand momentum appears to be gaining. For office, job growth is key, and office-using job growth has rebounded nicely over the past 12 months. In addition, a large chunk of ‘shadow space’ has now been backfilled, allowing new demand to have a more noticeable impact on vacancy rates. New construction remains limited and that is not expected to change near-term — lenders still have a limited appetite for leasing risk; only deals with significant pre-leasing will move forward. The one area that continues to lag in the office sector is rents. The good news here is that the bleeding appears to have stopped — rents are no longer falling. However, it does not appear that pricing leverage will return to landlords until vacancy falls further, which may take another 12 to 18 months. Regionally, the strongest markets are the Washington, D.C., region, New York and Southern California. Laggards remain the former high-flying tech markets — San Francisco, San Jose, Boston, Austin and Denver all have vacancy rates around 20 percent.”
— Nicholas Buss, PNC Real Estate Finance
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Financing in the Retail Market
- “Retail is king right now throughout the country. The fundamentals are great in the short and long term. Retail in Phoenix and Vegas is on fire following the phenomenal growth in those regions. Retail values should hold strong for the next year. Any increase in long-term interest rates should be offset by strong tenant sales and continued strong market fundamentals.”
— Leslie Lundin, Inland Mortgage Capital Corporation
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Financing in the Industrial Market
- “Industrial markets continue to make a slow and steady improvement, driven by measured expansion of the national economy and renewed activity in the goods-producing sector. Leading industrial markets are the trade-oriented gateways — Southern California, Seattle, Oakland, Northern New Jersey and South Florida — where increased import-export activity is driving demand. Secondary, low-cost hubs, such as Reno, Las Vegas, Salt Lake City, Orlando, Indianapolis and Columbus, also continue to draw attention. Industrial demand today is driven more by the need of companies to store goods than produce them — drawing industrial space away from centers of production and more to centers of population and trade. Although we expect the national vacancy rate to fall below 11 percent, improvement may be slowed by increased construction activity. While this is warranted in some markets, it could create problems and delay recovery in others — developers must be careful not to get ahead of demand. Similarly, a new round of supply could impede any opportunity for rent gains in 2005.”
— Nicholas Buss, PNC Real Estate Finance
- “Port areas are doing very well. The cargo entering western ports, in particular Long Beach and Los Angeles, from Asia has had a dramatic positive impact on industrial properties in Los Angeles and the Inland Empire. Vacancy rates in primary port areas are in the 1 to 4 percent range, while secondary and tertiary ports areas represent opportunistic plays for niche industrial players.”
— Thomas Sherlock, Buchanan Street Partners
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Financing in the Hospitality Market
- “The hotel sector continues to show noticeable improvement, thanks to a combination of steady economic growth supporting business travel and a weak dollar boosting leisure travel for both domestic and foreign visitors. By market, major business centers such as New York, Los Angeles and Washington, D.C. and resort areas such as Orlando, South Florida and Orange County are currently leading the way — and markets where the two intersect are particularly strong. Stronger demand has allowed hoteliers to enjoy both increased occupancy and higher average daily rates (ADRs). As a result, industry-wide Revenue per available room (RevPAR) is growing at its fastest pace in more than a decade. Limited new construction has aided in the sector’s recovery, and although it is likely to pick up this year, it will not be a major distraction. By segment, higher-end hotels have shown stronger gains than limited-service or economy product.”
— Nicholas Buss, PNC Real Estate Finance
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